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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or simply the biggest shock.

Yet the latest race is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners fading and recent also-rans rising collectively. Under an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this wild and fun season, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still